SS #82 - Circle Up 49% YTD, Bernstein Sees 60% More Upside

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Circle quietly becoming one of Wall Street's best performers of 2026. Circle is up 49% YTD, institutions are piling in, and the regulatory backdrop is finally working in their favor.

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In Today's Edition:

• Headline: Circle Up 49% YTD, Bernstein Sees 60% More Upside

• Quick Bites: Stablecoins Will Drive Global Deposits Into US

• Yield of the Week: Gauntlet eUSD Core Vault’s 19.62% APY

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HEADLINE

State of play: Circle has emerged as one of Wall Street's top performers in 2026, with shares up 49% YtD and more than doubling since early February, largely decoupled from broader crypto market weakness.

• Bernstein maintains an "Outperform" rating with a $190 price target, implying ~60% further upside from current levels of $118.

• Circle's market cap stands at ~$30.3B, with USDC holding ~25% of the global stablecoin market at ~$78B in circulation.

• The GENIUS Act providing clearer guidelines that directly benefit Circle's business model.

• Institutional backing remains strong, with BlackRock, BNY Mellon, Fidelity, and Goldman Sachs all playing key roles in Circle's operations and investment base.

• USDC circulating supply recovering sharply from a ~$22B trough in mid-2024 to a new all-time high near $80B heading into early 2026.

What’s Next: Regulatory clarity from the GENIUS Act should keep pulling institutions toward USDC, watch for more Wall Street integrations.

Why it Matters: If Circle keeps decoupling from crypto, it stops being a crypto stock and starts being a fintech one, that's a much bigger addressable market.

Our Take: 60% upside sounds great, but at $30B market cap for essentially a dollar-wrapper business, the real bet is on stablecoin volume growth delivering actual revenue.

QUICK BITES

• Metaplanet bets on Japanese stablecoin JPYC.

• Societe Generale-FORGE launches EURCV stablecoin on Stellar.

• BitGo to custody digital assets for StableX’s $100M stablecoin plan.

• FDIC chair says no deposit insurance for stablecoins under GENIUS Act.

• ABA finds consumers support stablecoin yield limits tied to banking risk.

• US banking lobby weighs lawsuit against OCC over crypto trust charters.

• Trump's crypto advisor says stablecoins will drive global deposits into US.

• Starknet to deploy STRK20 framework enabling privacy-focused stablecoins.

YIELD OF THE WEEK

Gauntlet eUSD Core Vault: 19.62% APY

• The vault accepts eUSD deposits and allocates capital across Morpho lending markets to optimize risk-adjusted yield. Total deposits currently stand at ~$1.20M eUSD.

• Capital is primarily deployed into WBTC/eUSD (86%, 22.13% APY), wstETH/eUSD (86%, 21.45% APY), and ETH+/eUSD (77%, 21.79% APY), with utilization near 100% across all active markets.

• Yield is generated from lending demand and borrowing activity in these collateralized markets, with a 10% performance fee applied to returns.

Main Street Yield (msY): 11.58% APY

• The vault turns CME index box spreads into market-neutral, USD-denominated yield accessible onchain. Total deposits currently stand at ~$28.79M.

• Capital is deployed into short-duration, laddered CME box spread positions across multiple expiries and strike ranges, keeping interest-rate duration low and returns smooth.

• Yield is generated from institutional options-funding activity on CME, with the strategy designed to throttle new inflows if additional size would compress returns.

sUSDe/USDT Pool: 18.51% APR

• The pool provides liquidity between sUSDe and USDT at a 0.008% fee tier, with current TVL at ~$813.6K and strong 24H volume of ~$5.2M.

• Capital is split between 417.1K sUSDe and 303.7K USDT, with high turnover relative to pool size indicating active trading demand around the sUSDe/USDT pair.

• Yield is generated purely from swap fee revenue, with the high volume-to-TVL ratio driving an elevated 18.51% APR for liquidity providers.

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Disclaimer: All the information presented in this publication and its affiliates is strictly for educational purposes only. It should not be construed or taken as financial, legal, investment, or any other form of advice.