SS #78 - Circle Q4 Revenue Up 77%, USDC at $75B

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Good morning.

Circle delivered a breakout fourth quarter, with revenue surging 77% year over year as USDC circulation climbed to $75B. The results underscore the scale effect of reserve-driven income and accelerating stablecoin adoption, positioning Circle to press its advantage in an increasingly competitive market dominated by Tether.

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In Today's Edition:

• Headline: Circle Q4 Revenue Up 77%, USDC at $75B

• Quick Bites: OCC issues proposal to implement GENIUS Act

• Yield of the Week: gUSDC's 10.48% APY

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HEADLINE

State of play: Circle reported $770M in Q4 2025 revenue and reserve income, up 77% YoY, driven primarily by $733M in reserve income. USDC circulation increased 72% to $75.3B, with average supply doubling to $76.2B.

• Net income from continuing operations reached $133M in Q4, compared to $4M a year earlier, while adjusted EBITDA rose 412% to $167M.

• For full-year 2025, the company posted a $70M net loss, largely due to $424M in IPO-related stock-based compensation.

• Circle also issued multi-year guidance targeting a 40% CAGR in USDC circulation to expand market share against Tether.

• EURC supply rose to €310M, USYC assets reached $1.5B, and the Arc testnet surpassed 166M transactions.

• Circle Payments Network hit $5.7B annualized volume, with Visa and Intuit partnerships and conditional OCC approval for a trust bank.

What’s Next: Circle will focus on scaling USDC supply toward its 40% CAGR target, expanding payments infrastructure, and advancing regulatory positioning through its planned national trust bank and deeper enterprise integrations.

Why it Matters: Rapid USDC growth and improving profitability strengthen Circle’s position against Tether, reinforcing stablecoins as core financial infrastructure across payments, treasury, and onchain markets.

Our Take: Circle is transitioning from high-growth issuer to regulated financial infrastructure provider, but sustaining expansion will depend on rate dynamics, competitive pressure, and execution on network adoption.

QUICK BITES

• RedotPay explores $1B US IPO at $4B valuation.

• TruStage pilots stablecoin geared for credit unions.

• Revolut picked by UK FCA to test stablecoin sandbox.

• Hong Kong to issue first stablecoin issuer licenses next month.

• Tether invests in Whop as platform adopts WDK for stablecoin payouts.

• OCC issues proposal to implement GENIUS Act, seeking public feedback.

• Stripe co-founder predicts surge in AI agent commerce using stablecoins.

YIELD OF THE WEEK

gUSDC Vault: 10.48% APY

• The vault accepts USDC deposits in exchange for gUSDC, an ERC 20 token representing ownership in the pool, The vault currently manages ~$12M USDC in TVL.

• Capital serves as the counterparty to platform trades, and stakers earn fees from each trade, with yield accumulating in real time through the gUSDC price.

• Current collateral ratio stands at 103.38%, with gUSDC priced at 1.27951 and total supply of 9,585,957.

Kamino USDu-USDC Liquidity: 12.60% APY

• This vault provides liquidity to the USDu-USDC pair on Orca (0.01% fee tier). TVL stands at $2.93M, with $724.56K in 7-day volume generating a base fees APY of 0.13%.

• Returns are primarily incentive-driven, with a boosted APY of 12.60% supported by 1,000 USDu distributed daily (7,000 USDu over the past 7 days).

• The strategy operates on a fixed range of 0.9949–1.0049, with the current price at 1.0001.

Pendle LP jrNUSD : 13.28% APY

• The pool provides liquidity for jrNUSD, the junior tranche of Strata’s NUSD structure, on Ethereum. Total liquidity stands at ~$2.44M.

• jrNUSD is the first-loss tranche, earning residual yield in exchange for absorbing underperformance and insolvency risk.

• Current on-chain jrNUSD APY is 10.69%, with total LP APY at 13.28%, composed of 8.65% underlying yield, 2.06% PT yield, and 2.57% Pendle LP incentives.

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Disclaimer: All the information presented in this publication and its affiliates is strictly for educational purposes only. It should not be construed or taken as financial, legal, investment, or any other form of advice.