Onigiri Weekend Digest: Institutional Lens #7

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Good weekend from Onigiri Capital!

As stablecoins edge ever closer to mainstream financial infrastructure, two headlines this week underscore the widening gap between scale and structure in the industry.

Recap this Week's Headliners

SS #45 - Tether Hits $10B Profit 
SS #46 - UK Rushes Stablecoin Rules

On one end, Tether’s $10B YTD profit cements its dominance as a private money printer operating at near-central-bank scale. On the other, the UK’s accelerated stablecoin rulebook signals the institutional capture of stablecoin policy, aligning G7 monetary systems for a regulated, tiered future.

One reveals the economic gravity of stablecoins; the other, the institutional response. Together, they reveal the industry’s new reality: profit-rich incumbents are institutionalizing, while governments are finally designing the rails to contain them.

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TOGETHER WITH

Neutrl Officially Launch to Public on Monday, November 10

Get ready: the long-awaited moment is finally here. Neutrl officially opens its platform to everyone on Monday, November 10th.

Neturl recent pre-deposit phase saw overwhelming demand, filling up completely in just over an hour with a total of $75M deposited.

For this public launch, Neutrl is introducing Neutrl Points, which can be earned through several key activities:

• Holding NUSD

• Staking NUSD to receive sNUSD

• Committing NUSD or sNUSD for fixed lock durations

• Providing liquidity on Curve

• Supplying NUSD/sNUSD as collateral across approved DeFi venues

The system includes a base multiplier with optional boosts for longer lock periods. The longer you commit your assets, the higher your boost and the more Neutrl Points you earn.

Note: Participants in the pre-deposit vault have already been accruing points since the day they made their initial deposit.

The public launch has arrived for everyone who missed the initial pre-deposit. Follow Neutrl now for the next steps and future opportunities!

🍙Onigiri Take

Stablecoins have evolved from a crypto-market utility to a systemically relevant layer of global finance. 

• 2020–2023 was about survival and speculation; 

• 2024–2025 is about profit and policy.

• The next phase — 2026 onward — will be about integration and influence.

Tether’s $10B in profits — larger than most regional banks — demonstrates that stablecoin issuers have become quasi-money-market funds earning central-bank-scale yields from sovereign debt. Meanwhile, the UK’s regulatory sprint reflects mounting concern: when monetary control and liquidity creation migrate to non-bank entities, oversight can no longer lag innovation.

Onigiri’s View:

• Stablecoins are entering a “regulatory phase transition” — moving from offshore issuance to onshore integration.

• Profitability and compliance are converging: Tether’s U.S. Treasury profits now match the scale of sovereign reserve management, while the BOE’s rules codify stablecoins as legitimate payment instruments.

• The future of money is bifurcating: “unregulated global dollars” like USDT for emerging markets, and “regulated digital pounds and dollars” for institutional finance.

This dual-track evolution will define 2026 — with Asia and the UK competing to balance yield, compliance, and distribution. The untapped opportunity no longer lies in issuing stablecoins — it lies in the infrastructure that moves, manages, and embeds them across trade, credit, treasury, and retail flows.

🍙Winners & Losers: Institutional Outlook

🍙Under the Hood: From Arbitrage to Architecture

Tether’s $10B profit illustrates the interest-rate arbitrage engine powering stablecoins: holding $135B in Treasuries yields annualized returns exceeding 5%, while redemption and issuance costs remain negligible.

This profit model has turned stablecoin issuers into shadow money-market funds — privately controlled yet publicly systemically significant. Tether’s rumored $50B valuation push signals its intent to transition from crypto-native to capital-market player, likely targeting regulated issuance (via USAT) and diversification into AI, data, and payments.

Meanwhile, the UK’s upcoming stablecoin rulebook sets a precedent for global financial alignment. Its tiered system mirrors bank capital segmentation: only “systemic” stablecoins (those handling large-scale payments) will fall under BOE oversight, while others remain under the FCA. This bifurcation formalizes what has long been implicit — not all stablecoins are created equal.

Structural Trend:

We’re witnessing the institutionalization of stablecoin issuance, where profitability, regulation, and adoption form the new triad of monetary legitimacy.

🍙Stablecoin ≠ Crypto — The Next Monetary Layer

The coming decade will redefine stablecoins not as crypto instruments but as monetary infrastructure. While much of the industry fixates on U.S. policy and crypto-native growth, the real frontier is forming across underbanked economies and enterprise finance.

Stablecoins are already reshaping:

• Cross-border liquidity in Asia, where IDR-, PHP-, and THB-pegged tokens are powering remittance corridors.

• Corporate settlements, as CFOs explore stablecoins for intragroup transfers and instant working capital.

• On-chain credit, with protocols collateralizing stablecoins against tokenized assets for yield and risk management.

USDT, USDC, and soon local currency-linked stablecoins operate increasingly like digital bank reserves, embedded into trade, e-commerce, and settlements rather than speculative markets. They are becoming the “TCP/IP of money” — invisible, standardized, and essential.

The divergence is clear:

1. Crypto chases volatility and innovation.

2. Stablecoins chase yield, liquidity, and compliance.

The global stablecoin supply (now >$180B) may double by 2026, but its composition will tilt from offshore tokens to regulated, yield-bearing, fiat-backed instruments. The eventual convergence point: tokenized cash interoperable with CBDCs, governed by licensed financial entities.

🍙Institutional Risks & Unknowns

1. Yield Compression Risk — If U.S. rates fall, the stablecoin profit engine weakens, pushing issuers to seek new business models (AI, tokenization, lending).

2. Regulatory Convergence Risk – Diverging regimes (MiCA, BOE, U.S. stablecoin acts) may create compliance fragmentation for global issuers.

3. Custody & Counterparty Dependencies – Centralized control of reserves remains opaque; systemic stress tests for stablecoins are still theoretical.

4. Technology Governance – As issuers evolve into financial platforms, governance, smart-contract control, and auditability become the next regulatory flashpoints.

Onigiri Capital (onigiri.vc), a US$50 million blockchain-focused investment fund, launched by Saison Capital, the venture arm of Japan’s Credit Saison. Onigiri Capital is on a mission to chart the next chapter of finance and invest in seed and Series A blockchain startups in stablecoins, payments, RWAs, DeFi and financial infrastructure. The fund’s strategy emphasizes connecting startups to Asia’s growing digital asset markets.

If you'd like to discuss or contribute to the next Institutional Lens, contact us at [email protected]

Disclaimer: All the information presented in this publication and its affiliates is strictly for educational purposes only. It should not be construed or taken as financial, legal, investment, or any other form of advice.

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