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Onigiri Weekend Digest: Institutional Lens #14

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Good weekend—and as this is our final Stablescope edition of 2025, we would like to extend warm wishes from Onigiri Capital: Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

We close the year not with noise or price action, but with two decisive regulatory signals that neatly frame how digital money is maturing. 

Recap this Week's Headliners

One arrives from the United States, where lawmakers are moving to normalize crypto within the tax code. The other comes from Europe, where policymakers are deliberately constraining sovereign digital money to preserve financial stability.

Together, these developments underscore a clear transition: 2025 was the year stablecoins became institutional reality, and 2026 is shaping up to be the year of execution—with real progress across payments, treasury infrastructure, tokenized assets, and regulated market rails.

With that, we end the year by unpacking what these signals mean—and what they set in motion for the year ahead. 

Enjoy the read!

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🍙Onigiri Take

The Digital Asset PARITY Act and the EU’s digital euro framework are not contradictory—they are complementary expressions of regulatory intent.

  • The U.S. is removing friction for compliant stablecoin usage (micro-payments, staking clarity, accounting parity).

  • Europe is containing sovereign digital money to ensure it does not disintermediate banks.

Together, they accelerate a structural shift:

  • CBDCs become regulated, capped payment instruments.

  • Stablecoins become the scalable, programmable settlement layer for commerce, capital markets, and cross-border liquidity.

  • Crypto speculation gives way to financial infrastructure.

This is not mass adoption via hype. It is adoption via tax codes, balance sheets, and payment rails.

🍙Winners & Losers: Institutional Outlook

Stakeholder

Impact

Institutional Interpretation

Major Stablecoin Issuers

Winner

U.S. tax clarity + EU CBDC limits reinforce stablecoins as the only scalable digital dollar/euro proxies.

Banks & Financial Institutions

Mixed

Protected in the EU via CBDC caps; pressured in the U.S. as stablecoin payments gain parity.

Regulators

Winner

Clear separation of use cases: CBDCs for payments, stablecoins for markets. Reduced ambiguity.

Corporates & Enterprises

Winner

$200 de minimis exemption removes accounting friction for B2B/B2C stablecoin usage.

Retail Users & Crypto Natives

Mixed

Easier payments, fewer tax loopholes. Speculation becomes less attractive.

Developers & Protocol Founders

Winner

Predictable rules enable long-term product design beyond tax arbitrage.

Institutional Investors & VCs

Winner

Legal parity enables underwriting stablecoin infra like fintech, not frontier risk.

Infrastructure & Service Providers

Winner

Compliance, custody, accounting, and reporting layers see sustained demand.

DAOs & Governance Communities

Loser

Increasing mismatch between decentralized governance ideals and regulated finance reality.

Exchanges & Market Infrastructure

Mixed

Trading-driven revenues compress; regulated settlement and brokerage expand.

🍙Under the Hood: Tax Normalization vs Monetary Containment

1. The PARITY Act — Normalizing Crypto as Financial Activity

The PARITY Act addresses long-standing structural frictions:

  • $200 de minimis exemption eliminates capital gains reporting for everyday stablecoin payments.

  • Wash sale and constructive sale rules align crypto with securities and commodities, ending loss-harvesting asymmetries.

  • Optional deferral for staking/mining rewards resolves “phantom income.”

  • Mark-to-market accounting signals readiness for professional trading and treasury use.

Directionally: the U.S. is saying crypto should be taxed like finance, not treated as a novelty asset class.

2. The Digital Euro — Designing Constraints, Not Scale

The endorsement by the Council of the European Union, working with the European Central Bank, prioritizes:

  • Payment utility over capital storage.

  • Strict holding limits (likely €3,000–€4,000).

  • Preservation of commercial bank deposit bases.

Directionally: Europe wants digital efficiency without monetary disruption.

The combined effects are that stablecoins inherit scale, programmability, and global reach and CBDCs inherit compliance, caps, and domestic payment roles. This is regulatory choreography, not contradiction.

🍙Stablecoin ≠ Crypto — From Speculation to Settlement Infrastructure

Stablecoins are increasingly treated as:

  • Digital cash equivalents

  • Settlement rails for trade, payroll, and capital markets

  • Balance-sheet instruments, not trading chips

The PARITY Act removes micro-frictions. The digital euro imposes macro-constraints. Together, they isolate stablecoins as the only instrument capable of scaling globally without balance caps or deposit flight concerns.

This is why stablecoins are converging with:

  • Payments

  • Treasury management

  • Tokenized deposits and RWAs

  • Cross-border clearing

Not memes. Not leverage.

🍙Institutional Risks & Unknowns

Despite regulatory momentum, several uncertainties remain:

  1. Federally Regulated Definition (U.S.) The stablecoin exemption hinges on what qualifies as “federally regulated.” This will shape issuer market structure.

  2. EU Fragmentation Risk National implementations of the digital euro may vary, complicating pan-European payment strategies.

  3. Bank–Stablecoin Competition Deposit substitution remains politically sensitive, especially if stablecoins gain enterprise adoption faster than expected.

  4. Operational Compliance Load Tax parity increases reporting sophistication requirements for issuers, wallets, and infrastructure providers.

  5. Geopolitical Monetary Strategy CBDCs may remain intentionally weak by design, but that leaves monetary influence increasingly in private rails.

Onigiri Capital (onigiri.vc), a US$50 million blockchain-focused investment fund, launched by Saison Capital, the venture arm of Japan’s Credit Saison. Onigiri Capital is on a mission to chart the next chapter of finance and invest in seed and Series A blockchain startups in stablecoins, payments, RWAs, DeFi and financial infrastructure. The fund’s strategy emphasizes connecting startups to Asia’s growing digital asset markets.

If you'd like to discuss or contribute to the next Institutional Lens, contact us at [email protected]

Disclaimer: All the information presented in this publication and its affiliates is strictly for educational purposes only. It should not be construed or taken as financial, legal, investment, or any other form of advice.