Onigiri Weekend Digest: Institutional Lens #13

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Good weekend from Onigiri Capital!

This week’s headlines show the spectrum of where stablecoins are headed: from privately governed capital markets on-chain to fully supervised monetary infrastructure. We see that what began as a crypto-native workaround for payments and settlement is now becoming a strategic instrument for corporate finance, bank balance sheets, and sovereign oversight.

Recap this Week's Headliners

SS #57 - Tether Targets $500B Valuation and Tokenized Equity
SS #58 - FDIC Unveils First Federal Framework for Bank-Led Stablecoin Issuance

On one end of the spectrum, Tether is testing how far a private company can push capital markets without touching an IPO, using tokenized equity to engineer liquidity, valuation control, and investor access on its own terms. On the other hand, the FDIC has begun formalizing how U.S. banks can issue stablecoins within the federal banking system, bringing digital dollars decisively inside the regulatory perimeter. Together, they define the operating range for stablecoins going forward.

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🍙Onigiri Take

Stablecoins are no longer shaped by innovation cycles; they are shaped by institutional leverage. The market is now bifurcating into two distinct but converging tracks:

• Tether’s strategy demonstrates how scale allows issuers to dictate market structure, liquidity access, and valuation discipline.

• The FDIC’s framework demonstrates how the state intends to reclaim monetary credibility without banning innovation.

The result is not decentralization versus regulation. It is private power versus public oversight, both converging on the same infrastructure stack.

The next era of stablecoins will not reward experimentation. It will reward entities that can operate under scrutiny, control distribution, and absorb compliance costs while preserving economic upside.

🍙Winners & Losers: Institutional Outlook

🍙Under the Hood: Capital Markets Logic Enters On-Chain Finance

Tether: Tokenized Equity as a “Private IPO”

Tether’s exploration of tokenized equity following a planned US$20 billion raise is a landmark moment for real-world assets (RWA). By potentially issuing permissioned, on-chain representations of its own shares—likely via its Hadron platform—Tether is attempting to:

• Provide controlled secondary liquidity without a public listing

• Preserve valuation discipline and cap-table control

• Validate its own tokenization infrastructure using the most valuable balance sheet in crypto
  

This is RWA at its highest stakes: not pilot bonds or niche funds, but corporate equity of a systemically important issuer. If successful, it establishes a blueprint for late-stage private companies to bypass traditional IPO pathways entirely.

FDIC: Stablecoins Enter the Banking Perimeter

The FDIC’s initiation of a federal framework for bank-led stablecoin issuance operationalizes the GENIUS Act. Key elements include:

• Issuance via regulated subsidiaries

• Full asset backing with liquid reserves

• Mandatory audits and transparent ownership structures

• Upcoming capital and liquidity requirements
  

This shifts stablecoins from regulatory ambiguity into explicit bank supervision, setting the foundation for institutional adoption at scale. The trade-off is cost: compliance, capital, and governance thresholds will be meaningful barriers to entry.

Future Trends Emerging from Both Headlines

• Permissioned markets will dominate institutional flows, both for equity and stablecoins

• Balance-sheet credibility becomes the moat, not yield or growth alone

• Tokenization shifts from experimentation to corporate finance strategy

• Infrastructure, not apps, captures long-term value

🍙Stablecoin ≠ Crypto — Stablecoins as Balance-Sheet Infrastructure

Stablecoins are no longer a proxy for crypto risk. They are becoming neutral financial rails—akin to SWIFT, ACH, or money-market funds—implemented with blockchain technology.

• Tether’s move is about capital markets engineering, not DeFi ideology

• The FDIC’s framework is about payments safety and monetary control, not crypto innovation

The market is finally pricing stablecoins as infrastructure, not speculative assets.

🍙Institutional Risks & Unknowns

Despite regulatory momentum, several uncertainties remain:

1. Securities risk: Tokenized equity may invite multi-jurisdictional enforcement despite permissioning.

2. Issuer concentration: A handful of entities could dominate global on-chain liquidity.

3. Cost of compliance: FDIC capital rules may crowd out fintech-led issuance entirely.

4. Liquidity optics: Permissioned secondary markets risk shallow price discovery.

5. Global fragmentation: Divergent regulatory regimes may create incompatible stablecoin standards.

Onigiri Capital (onigiri.vc), a US$50 million blockchain-focused investment fund, launched by Saison Capital, the venture arm of Japan’s Credit Saison. Onigiri Capital is on a mission to chart the next chapter of finance and invest in seed and Series A blockchain startups in stablecoins, payments, RWAs, DeFi and financial infrastructure. The fund’s strategy emphasizes connecting startups to Asia’s growing digital asset markets.

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Disclaimer: All the information presented in this publication and its affiliates is strictly for educational purposes only. It should not be construed or taken as financial, legal, investment, or any other form of advice.