Onigiri Weekend Digest: Institutional Lens #12

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GM from Onigiri Capital!

This week marks another pivotal moment in the institutionalisation of stablecoins. As the year comes to a close, we are already seeing regulators accelerate toward a 2026 landscape that will fundamentally reshape how digital dollars, digital pounds, and tokenised assets integrate into global financial infrastructure.

Two major developments underscore this momentum:

Recap this Week's Headliners

SS #55 - CFTC Approves Crypto Collateral including USDC for Derivatives Trading 
SS #56 - FCA Targets 2026 for Stablecoin Payments

These are not incremental updates. They represent a decisive shift: stablecoins are moving from optional tools at the edge of crypto markets to core components of regulated financial systems. This edition unpacks what these signals mean for institutions, issuers, developers — and the broader trajectory heading into 2026.

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🍙Onigiri Take

The week’s developments reinforce a clear trend: stablecoins are being repositioned as core financial plumbing.

US: Stablecoins as Institutional Collateral
The CFTC’s approval of USDC as derivatives margin is a watershed moment. For the first time, a U.S. federal regulator has endorsed a stablecoin as a fit-for-purpose institutional collateral asset. This turns USDC into a digital cash equivalent for futures and swaps, unlocking 24/7 settlement, atomic guarantees, and composable collateral mobilisation.

UK: Stablecoins as National Payment Infrastructure
The FCA’s targeted 2026 timeline for sterling stablecoin payments is equally consequential. It places the UK on a definitive regulatory path to transform GBP into a programmable, regulated digital currency standard — one that enterprises and fintechs can integrate with legal clarity.

Our View
Together, these signals reinforce a global shift:

• Stablecoins are becoming collateral, payments infrastructure, and regulatory-defined financial instruments.

• Regulatory clarity is now a competitive currency for jurisdictions.

• The issuers that meet institutional-grade requirements early (Circle, major banks, regulated trust issuers) will capture disproportionate market share.

Reinforcing our stance on stablecoins, they are no longer a subset of crypto — they are becoming the connective tissue between TradFi and DeFi.

🍙Winners & Losers: Institutional Outlook

🍙Under the Hood: Regulatory Architecture Is Shifting Toward Tokenised Collateral & Digital Fiat

1. The CFTC’s digital assets pilot program, enabled by the GENIUS Act, formally permits eligible FCMs to use BTC, ETH, and USDC as derivatives margin. This is accompanied by stringent oversight and weekly reporting, removal of outdated 2020 restrictions, a framework enabling tokenised RWAs (like U.S. Treasuries) to be recognised as collateral.

   
   Institutional implications: USDC becomes a regulated institutional settlement rail. High-quality stablecoins will emerge as the default collateral type given their operational speed and near-zero settlement risk. This will pressure traditional collateral markets — especially for U.S. Treasuries — to move toward atomic, 24/7 settlement.

2. On the other hand, FCA is timetabling the future of GBP stablecoins. The UK is pursuing a full-stack digital-asset regime by 2026, covering stablecoins, custody, trading, and market infrastructure. The regulator is accelerating industry participation through a stablecoin sandbox (applications closing January 18), adopting an outcomes-based model to avoid the static, prescriptive frameworks that previously slowed progress.
   
   Institutional implications: This creates a credible pathway for sterling-denominated stablecoins to become regulated payment instruments, enabling banks, fintechs, and payment providers to build compliant GBP settlement and treasury products in advance of 2026.

The future trendline we see is that tokenised finance is moving into regulated market infrastructure. Across the US and UK, the direction is consistent:

• Stablecoins as collateral

• Stablecoins as regulated payments instruments

• Stablecoins embedded into national regulatory frameworks

• 24/7 atomic settlement as a baseline requirement

• Competition between fiat currencies for digital-asset dominance

The regulatory race is beginning — and stablecoins are the centrepiece.

🍙Stablecoin ≠ Crypto — Stablecoins Are Becoming a Regulated Digital Cash Layer

Stablecoins are increasingly treated less as speculative crypto assets and more as regulated representations of national currencies. The CFTC’s collateral approval and the FCA’s payments timeline reinforce that stablecoins sit within the realm of financial infrastructure, not speculative crypto trading.

This distinction will matter:

• Supervised stablecoins will integrate into derivatives, payments, and treasury systems.

• Unregulated or opaque stablecoins will be sidelined — or barred — from institutional markets.

• National fiat currencies will begin competing in digital form, not only through CBDCs but via regulated private-sector stablecoins.

Stablecoins are evolving into a digital cash layer underpinning both TradFi and blockchain networks.

🍙Institutional Risks & Unknowns

Despite regulatory momentum, several uncertainties remain:

1. Standardisation of Stablecoin Reserve Quality: Only a handful of issuers (Circle, Paxos, regulated trust issuers) meet the bar for institutional reserve transparency. Questions remain over treatment of short-dated RWAs, liquidity requirements, and real-time proof-of-reserves obligations.

2. Regulatory Timelines May Slip: The FCA’s 2026 goal is ambitious. Delays would weaken UK competitiveness and increase fragmentation across Europe.

3. Collateral Concentration Risk: If USDC becomes the dominant collateral asset in derivatives markets, systemic dependencies may form around a single issuer.

4. Interoperability Between Regimes: The CFTC and FCA are aligned in direction but not in framework. Cross-border harmonisation will take time.

5. Market Infrastructure Readiness: CCPs, FCMs, custodians, and banks must upgrade systems to support tokenised collateral. The timeline for full implementation is still uncertain.

6. Impact on Non-USD Stablecoins: As USD-pegged stablecoins gain institutional adoption, the competitive landscape for EUR, GBP, and APAC stablecoins remains unclear.

Onigiri Capital (onigiri.vc), a US$50 million blockchain-focused investment fund, launched by Saison Capital, the venture arm of Japan’s Credit Saison. Onigiri Capital is on a mission to chart the next chapter of finance and invest in seed and Series A blockchain startups in stablecoins, payments, RWAs, DeFi and financial infrastructure. The fund’s strategy emphasizes connecting startups to Asia’s growing digital asset markets.

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Disclaimer: All the information presented in this publication and its affiliates is strictly for educational purposes only. It should not be construed or taken as financial, legal, investment, or any other form of advice.